Using variance components to estimate power in a hierarchically nested sampling design

We used variance components to assess allocation of sampling effort in a hierarchically nested sampling design for ongoing monitoring of early life history stages of the federally endangered Devils Hole pupfish (DHP) (Cyprinodon diabolis). Sampling design for larval DHP included surveys (5 days each spring 2007–2009), events, and plots. Each survey was comprised of three counting events, where DHP larvae on nine plots were counted plot by plot. Statistical analysis of larval abundance included three components: (1) evaluation of power from various sample size combinations, (2) comparison of power in fixed and random plot designs, and (3) assessment of yearly differences in the power of the survey. Results indicated that increasing the sample size at the lowest level of sampling represented the most realistic option to increase the survey’s power, fixed plot designs had greater power than random plot designs, and the power of the larval survey varied by year. This study provides an example of how monitoring efforts may benefit from coupling variance components estimation with power analysis to assess sampling design.     

Heavy metals in bottom sediments of Lake Umbozero in Murmansk Region, Russia

Sediment cores collected from different locations of Lake Umbozero were studied with respect to concentration and mobility of trace and heavy metals Co, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, U, and Zn. Lake Umbozero is the second largest lake in the Murmansk Region and subjected to contamination by air-borne emissions and river transportation from the nearby metallurgical and mining industries. Unlike its neighboring, more industry-prone Lake Imandra, Lake Umbozero is relatively unexplored with respect to its state of pollution. In our study, metal distribution in sediments was found to vary with respect to the cores, although in general the concentrations were at the same level throughout the lake indicating uniform horizontal distribution of metals. When compared to Lake Imandra, the concentrations of most of the metals studied were significantly lower and represented the levels in sediments measured in lakes of Kola Peninsula located further off from industrial pollutant sources. An exception was Pb the concentration of which was at the same level as in Lake Imandra, probably due to long-distance transport. Sediment layers were subjected to four-step sequential extraction procedure to reveal the metal distribution in soluble, exchangeable, acid-soluble, and residual fractions. Indicative of their potential higher lability, Mn, U, and Zn were generally found in exchangeable fraction; as also Mn and U extensively in the acid-soluble fraction.     

Trace metals in soil and leaves of Jacaranda mimosifolia in Tshwane area,South Africa

Plant and soil have been identified as major sink of pollutants in the environment. We evaluated the reliability of biomonitoring of heavy metals in Tshwane area with the use of leaves of Jacaranda mimosifolia. The concentrations of heavy metals such as Ca, Mg, Fe, Pb, Zn, Cu, Sb were measured in leaves of J. mimosifolia and soils collected from 10 sites in the city of Tshwane during two sampling periods. The metals were analyzed with the use of ICP-MS. The result shows significant differences in the concentration of trace metals in all the sites (p < 0.01). The differences between the two sampling periods were statistically significant (p < 0.01). Concentration of metals from high traffic and industrial sites were significantly higher than in the residential areas (p < 0.01). Concentration factor suggests that translocation of metals from roots to leaves could be relevant only for some metals such as Ca, Mg and Sb. The study reveals an anthropogenic source for the trace metals. Leaves of J. mimosifolia were found to be a useful biomonitor of the determined trace metals.     

A phenomenological approach shows a high coherence of warming patterns in dimictic aquatic systems across latitude

To predict the coherence in local responses to large-scale climatic forcing among aquatic systems, we developed a generalized approach to compare long-term data of dimictic water bodies based on phenomenologically defined hydrographic events. These climate-sensitive phases (inverse stratification, spring overturn, early thermal stratification, summer stagnation) were classified in a dual code (cold/warm) based on threshold temperatures. Accounting for a latitudinal gradient in seasonal timing of phases derived from gradients in cumulative irradiation (2.2?days per degree latitude), we found a high spatial and temporal coherence in warm–cold patterns for six lakes (84?%) and the Baltic Sea (78?%), even when using the same thresholds for all sites. Similarity to CW-codes for the North Sea still was up to 72?%. The approach allows prediction of phase-specific warming trends and resulting instantaneous or time-delayed ecological responses. Exemplarily, we show that warming during early thermal stratification controls food-web-mediated effects on key species during summer.     

Trace metals biogeochemistry of Kumaun Himalayan Lakes,Uttarakhand, India

The increasing urbanization, along with tourism, has posed a major threat to the Kumaun Himalayan Lakes, Uttarakhand, India. The total metal concentration in the water, interstitial water, and sediments along with the metal fractionation studies were carried out to understand the remobilization of the trace metals from the sediments of the lakes. The high concentration of the metals in the water column of the lakes generally decreases with depth and the metals release from the sediment is mainly due to the prevalence of anoxic condition at the sediment–water interface and sediment column. The sediment shows that metals Fe and Cr are derived from detrital source, whereas Co, Ni, and Zn are derived mainly from the organic matter dissolution. The sparse correlation of the trace metals with Ti shows most of the metals have chiefly re-precipitated from the water column. The metals speciation studies also supports that metals experience a high rate of anoxic dissolution and their precipitation onto the sediments are determined by the sediment composition and organic matter content. The high concentration of manganese in the interstitial water in the lakes indicates dissolution of organic matter. The released manganese is adsorbed/precipitated as carbonate phase (Nainital Lake) and oxide pahse (in other lakes). The study shows that the trace metals are regenerated from the sediments due to oxyhydroxide dissolution and organic matter decomposition.     

Sea-level rise vulnerability in the countries of the Coral Triangle

Sea-level rise is a major threat facing the Coral Triangle countries in the twenty-first century. Assessments of vulnerability and adaptation that consider the interactions among natural and social systems are critical to identifying habitats and communities vulnerable to sea-level rise and for supporting the development of adaptation strategies. This paper presents such an assessment using the DIVA model and identifies vulnerable coastal regions and habitats in Coral Triangle countries at national and sub-national levels (administrative provinces). The following four main sea-level rise impacts are assessed in ecological, social and economic terms over the twenty-first century: (1) coastal wetland change, (2) increased coastal flooding, (3) increased coastal erosion, and (4) saltwater intrusion into estuaries and deltas. The results suggest that sea-level rise will significantly affect coastal regions and habitats in the Coral Triangle countries, but the impacts will differ across the region in terms of people flooded annually, coastal wetland change and loss, and damage and adaptation costs. Indonesia is projected to be most affected by coastal flooding, with nearly 5.9 million people expected to experience flooding annually in 2100 assuming no adaptation. However, if adaptation is considered, this number is significantly reduced. By the end of the century, coastal wetland loss is most significant for Indonesia in terms of total area lost, but the Solomon Islands are projected to experience the greatest relative loss of coastal wetlands. Damage costs associated with sea-level rise are highest in the Philippines (US $6.5 billion/year) and lowest in the Solomon Islands (US $70,000/year). Adaptation is estimated to reduce damage costs significantly, in particular for the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia (between 68 and 99%). These results suggest that the impacts of sea-level rise are likely to be widespread in the region and adaptation measures must be broadly applied.     

介质阻挡放电联合催化臭氧化降解甲苯

采用介质阻挡放电区后结合MnOx/Al2O3/发泡镍去除甲苯,考察甲苯进气方式、臭氧产生方法及湿度对甲苯与O3同时去除的影响。结果表明,O3是等离子体区后催化降解甲苯的主要物种,介质阻挡放电联合催化臭氧化可实现甲苯及O3的同时高效去除。输入电压为9.0 kV时,甲苯的去除效率达92.8%,在80 min内O3的去除效率维持在99%以上。水蒸气对催化剂催化分解臭氧的活性没有直接的影响,O3浓度较高时湿度对甲苯降解效率的影响很小。GC-MS分析结果表明,甲苯降解的主要气相副产物有烷烃、酸、酮和含苯环有机物,提出了甲苯的降解途径。     

The BIOTA Biodiversity Observatories in Africa—a standardized framework for large-scale environmental monitoring

The international, interdisciplinary biodiversity research project BIOTA AFRICA initiated a standardized biodiversity monitoring network along climatic gradients across the African continent. Due to an identified lack of adequate monitoring designs, BIOTA AFRICA developed and implemented the standardized BIOTA Biodiversity Observatories, that meet the following criteria (a) enable long-term monitoring of biodiversity, potential driving factors, and relevant indicators with adequate spatial and temporal resolution, (b) facilitate comparability of data generated within different ecosystems, (c) allow integration of many disciplines, (d) allow spatial up-scaling, and (e) be applicable within a network approach. A BIOTA Observatory encompasses an area of 1?km² and is subdivided into 100 1-ha plots. For meeting the needs of sampling of different organism groups, the hectare plot is again subdivided into standardized subplots, whose sizes follow a geometric series. To allow for different sampling intensities but at the same time to characterize the whole square kilometer, the number of hectare plots to be sampled depends on the requirements of the respective discipline. A hierarchical ranking of the hectare plots ensures that all disciplines monitor as many hectare plots jointly as possible. The BIOTA Observatory design assures repeated, multidisciplinary standardized inventories of biodiversity and its environmental drivers, including options for spatial up- and downscaling and different sampling intensities. BIOTA Observatories have been installed along climatic and landscape gradients in Morocco, West Africa, and southern Africa. In regions with varying land use, several BIOTA Observatories are situated close to each other to analyze management effects.     

Assessment of drinking water quality using ICP-MS and microbiological methods in the Bholakpur area,Hyderabad, India

A total of 16 people died and over 500 people were hospitalized due to diarrhoeal illness in the Bholakpur area of Hyderabad, India on 6th May 2009. A study was conducted with immediate effect to evaluate the quality of municipal tap water of the Bholakpur locality. The study consists of the determination of physico-chemical properties, trace metals, heavy metals, rare earth elements and microbiological quality of drinking water. The data showed the variation of the investigated parameters in samples as follows: pH 7.14 to 8.72, EC 455 to 769 μS/cm, TDS 303.51 to 515.23 ppm and DO 1.01 to 6.83 mg/L which are within WHO guidelines for drinking water quality. The water samples were analyzed for 27 elements (Li, Be, B, Na, Mg, Al, Si, K, Ca, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Co, Cu, Zn, As, Se, Rb, Sr, Mo, Ag, Cd, Sb, Ba and Pb) using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The concentrations of Fe (0.12 to 1.13 mg/L), Pb (0.01 to 0.07 mg/L), Cu (0.01 to 0.19 mg/L), Ni (0.01 to 0.15 mg/L), Al (0.16 to 0.49 mg/L), and Na (38.36 to 68.69 mg/L) were obtained, which exceed the permissible limits of the World Health Organization (WHO) for drinking water quality guidelines. The remaining elements were within the permissible limits. The microbiological quality of water was tested using standard plate count, membrane filtration technique, thermotolerant coliform (TTC), and most probable number (MPN) methods. The total heterotrophic bacteria ranged from 1.0 × 10⁵ to 18 × 10⁷ cfu/ml. Total viable bacteria in all the water samples were found to be too numerable to count and total number of coliform bacteria in all water samples were found to be of order of 1,100 to >2,400 MPN index/100 ml. TTC tested positive for coliform bacteria at 44.2°C. All the water samples of the study area exceeded the permissible counts of WHO and that (zero and minimal counts) of the control site (National Geophysical Research Institute) water samples. Excessively high colony numbers indicate that the water is highly contaminated with microorganisms and is hazardous for drinking purposes. Bacteriological pollution of drinking water supplies caused diarrhoeal illness in Bholakpur, which is due to the infiltration of contaminated water (sewage) through cross connection, leakage points, and back siphoning.     

Comparison of the Performance of Statistical Models in Forecasting Monthly Total Dissolved Solids in the Rio Grande1

Abudu, S., J.P. King, Z. Sheng, 2011. Comparison of the Performance of Statistical Models in Forecasting Monthly Total Dissolved Solids in the Rio Grande. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 10‐23. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00587.x Abstract: This paper presents the application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), transfer function‐noise (TFN), and artificial neural networks (ANNs) modeling approaches in forecasting monthly total dissolved solids (TDS) of water in the Rio Grande at El Paso, Texas. Predictability analysis was performed between the precipitation, temperature, streamflow rates at the site, releases from upstream reservoirs, and monthly TDS using cross‐correlation statistical tests. The chi‐square test results indicated that the average monthly temperature and precipitation did not show significant predictability on monthly TDS series. The performances of one‐ to three‐month‐ahead model forecasts for the testing period of 1984‐1994 showed that the TFN model that incorporated the streamflow rates at the site and Caballo Reservoir release improved monthly TDS forecasts slightly better than the ARIMA models. Except for one‐month‐ahead forecasts, the ANN models using the streamflow rates at the site as inputs resulted in no significant improvements over the TFN models at two‐month‐ahead and three‐month‐ahead forecasts. For three‐month‐ahead forecasts, the simple ARIMA showed similar performance compared to all other models. The results of this study suggested that simple deseasonalized ARIMA models could be used in one‐ to three‐month‐ahead TDS forecasting at the study site with a simple, explicit model structure and similar model performance as the TFN and ANN models for better water management in the Basin.